DividendMax Ultra Safe Portfolio 2012
The final result for the full year is now in. The results for the second half of the year are in the Q3 & Q4 commentary
The companies in this portfolio must:
- Be in the process of a share buyback
- Be expected to increase the dividend in the next two years
Price Earnings (P/E) data as at time of publication
Weighting as at time of publication
Dividend Cover as at time of publication
Q1 Commentary. The new Q2 portfolio can be found at the bottom of the page.
1) The FTSE 100 increased by 1.2% in the first quarter. The Ultra Safe portfolio increased by 3.85%, outperforming the FTSE by 2.65%
2) The Ultra Safe portfolio did the following. No trading is undertaken. Dividends are not taken into account.
3) The portfolio performed extremely well with some notable exceptions. The portfolio was adversely affected by the poor mining and pharmaceutical sector performances.
Company |
Entry Price |
End-Q1 Price |
Performance |
Weighting (£1000 = 1%) |
Gain / Loss |
BAE |
313 |
300 |
-4.20% |
4 |
-£166.00 |
Chemring |
448 |
407 |
-9.10% |
5 |
-£457.00 |
Diageo |
1387 |
1502 |
8.29% |
3 |
£248.00 |
ICAP |
335 |
393 |
17.30% |
8 |
£1,385.00 |
William Hill |
225 |
261 |
16.00% |
4 |
£640.00 |
Man Group |
119 |
135 |
13.40% |
4 |
£538.00 |
Reckitt Benckiser |
3359 |
3531 |
5.10% |
4 |
£205.00 |
BskyB |
669 |
676 |
1.00% |
5 |
£52.00 |
WPP |
742 |
854 |
15.00% |
5 |
£755.00 |
Kazakhmys |
1121 |
908 |
-19.00% |
4 |
-£760.00 |
Rio Tinto |
3675 |
3446 |
-6.30% |
4 |
-£249.00 |
Glaxo Smithkline |
1435 |
1406 |
-2.10% |
5 |
-£101.00 |
AstraZeneca |
3034 |
2779 |
-9.40% |
4 |
-£336.00 |
WH Smith |
534.5 |
545 |
1.90% |
3 |
£59.00 |
Next |
2614 |
2983 |
14.10% |
3 |
£423.00 |
Sage |
305 |
299 |
-2.00% |
6 |
-£118.00 |
Compass |
613 |
655 |
6.80% |
6 |
£411.00 |
Vodafone |
177 |
172 |
-2.80% |
10 |
-£282.00 |
Inmarsat |
404 |
460 |
13.80% |
7 |
£970.00 |
British American Tobacco |
2921 |
3150 |
7.80% |
3 |
£235.00 |
Imperial Tobacco |
2238 |
2535 |
13.20% |
3 |
£398.00 |
Total Cash |
FTSE 100 |
Portfolio Performance |
£100,000.00 |
£101,200.00 |
£103,850.00 |
Here are a list of the changes following the Q1 performance. The portfolio remains the same, but the weightings have been changed to reflect the Q1 performance.
BAE systems weighting is up tp 6% from 4%
Chemring weighting is down to 3% from 5%
ICAP weighting is down from 8% to 5%
WPP weighting is down to 3% from 5%
Kazakhmys weighting is up to 7% from 4%
Rio Tinto weighting is up to 5% from 4%
AstraZeneca weighting is up from 4% to 5%
Sage weighting is up to 7% from 6%
Compass weighting is down from 6% to 5%
Inmarsat weighting is down from 7% to 5%
Q2 Commentary. The new Q3 portfolio can be found at the bottom of the page.
1) The FTSE 100 decreased by 3.4% in the first quarter. The Ultra Safe portfolio decreased by 4.7%, underperforming the FTSE by 1.3%
2) The Ultra Safe portfolio did the following. No trading is undertaken. Dividends are not taken into account.
3) The portfolio performed badly with some serious underperformers including MAN Group (-43.7%) and Chemring (-32.6%). Also performing badly was Kazakhmys, Rio Tinto and ICAP.
Company |
Entry Price |
End-Q2 Price |
Performance |
Weighting (£1000 = 1%) |
Gain / Loss |
BAE |
300 |
288.5 |
-3.8% |
6 |
-£230.00 |
Chemring |
407 |
274 |
-32.6% |
3 |
-£980.00 |
Diageo |
1502 |
1638 |
9% |
3 |
£271.00 |
ICAP |
393 |
337.5 |
-14.1% |
5 |
-£706.00 |
William Hill |
261 |
282.5 |
8.2% |
4 |
£329.00 |
Man Group |
135 |
76 |
-43.7% |
4 |
-£1748.00 |
Reckitt Benckiser |
3531 |
3368 |
-4.6% |
4 |
-£184.00 |
BskyB |
676 |
697 |
3.1% |
5 |
£155.00 |
WPP |
854 |
772 |
-9.6% |
5 |
-£480.00 |
Kazakhmys |
908 |
722 |
-20.5% |
7 |
-£1433.00 |
Rio Tinto |
3446 |
3027 |
-12.1% |
5 |
-£607.00 |
Glaxo Smithkline |
1406 |
1448 |
2.9% |
5 |
£149.00 |
AstraZeneca |
2779 |
2845 |
2.4% |
5 |
£118.00 |
WH Smith |
545 |
548 |
0% |
3 |
£16.00 |
Next |
2983 |
3203 |
7.4% |
3 |
£221.00 |
Sage |
299 |
278 |
-7% |
7 |
-£491.00 |
Compass |
655 |
668 |
2% |
5 |
£99.00 |
Vodafone |
172 |
179 |
4% |
10 |
£407.00 |
Inmarsat |
460 |
491 |
6.7% |
5 |
£337.00 |
British American Tobacco |
3150 |
3247 |
3% |
3 |
£92.00 |
Imperial Tobacco |
2535 |
2460 |
-2.9% |
3 |
-£88.00 |
Total Cash |
FTSE 100 |
Portfolio Performance |
£100,000.00 |
£96,600 |
£95,247 |
Here are a list of the changes following the Q2 performance. The portfolio remains the same, but the weightings have been changed to reflect the Q2 performance.
Chemring from 3 to 8%
Diageo from 3 to 1%
ICAP from 5 to 6%
William Hill from 4 to 3%
Man Group from 4 to 8%
WPP from 5 to 6%
Kazakhmys from 7 to 8%
Rio Tinto from 5 to 8%
Glaxo from 5 to 4%
Astra Zeneca from 5 to 4%
Next from 3 to 1%
Compass from 5 to 3%
Vodafone from 10 to 7%
Inmarsat from 5 to 3%
BAT from 3 to 1%
Imperial Tobacco from 3 to 4%
The Q3 -Q4 result is below
We saw a positive result of £5225 for the second half of the year, which was a little disappointing as Chemring and Vodafone proved to be real drags on performance and both had a high weighting, albeit, we reduced the Vodafone weighting at the end of the second quarter. During this time the FTSE 100 rose by 5.8% which would equate to £5800 meaning that the ultra safe portfolio underperformed the market by a small amount. With dividends of course we would have outperformed.
Company |
Q3 Entry Price |
Year end Price |
Performance |
Weighting (£1000 = 1%) |
Gain / Loss |
BAE |
288.5 |
337 |
16.80% |
6 |
£1,008.00 |
Chemring |
274 |
230 |
-16.00% |
8 |
-£1,284.00 |
Diageo |
1638 |
1784 |
8.90% |
1 |
£146.00 |
ICAP |
337.5 |
306 |
-9.30% |
6 |
-£560.00 |
William Hill |
282.5 |
347 |
22.80% |
3 |
£685.00 |
Man Group |
76 |
83 |
9.20% |
8 |
£737.00 |
Reckitt Benckiser |
3368 |
3872 |
14.96% |
4 |
£598.00 |
BskyB |
697 |
767 |
10.00% |
5 |
£500.00 |
WPP |
772 |
889 |
15.10% |
6 |
£906.00 |
Kazakhmys |
722 |
777 |
7.60% |
8 |
£608.00 |
Rio Tinto |
3027 |
3505 |
15.79% |
8 |
£1,263.00 |
Glaxo Smithkline |
1448 |
1332 |
-8.00% |
4 |
-£320.00 |
AstraZeneca |
2845 |
2903 |
2.00% |
4 |
£80.00 |
WH Smith |
548 |
668 |
21.89% |
3 |
£657.00 |
Next |
3203 |
3704 |
15.64% |
1 |
£156.00 |
Sage |
278 |
294 |
5.70% |
7 |
£399.00 |
Compass |
668 |
725 |
8.50% |
3 |
£255.00 |
Vodafone |
179 |
154 |
-13.90% |
7 |
£977.00 |
Inmarsat |
491 |
582 |
18.50% |
3 |
£555.00 |
British American Tobacco |
3247 |
3113 |
-4.10% |
1 |
-£41.00 |
Imperial Tobacco |
2460 |
2370 |
-3.60% |
4 |
-£146.00 |
Total Cash |
FTSE 100 |
Portfolio Performance |
£100,000.00 |
£105,897 |
£105,571 |
Company | 3 Div Yield | P/E | Cover | FDI | Sector | Price | Weighting |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAE Systems plc | 7.94% | 7.8 | 2.1 | 5.7% | Aerospace & Defence | £2.89 | 6.0% |
Chemring Group plc | 4.95% | 8.4 | 4.2 | 18.6% | Aerospace & Defence | £2.74 | 8.0% |
Diageo plc | 3.89% | 15.7 | 2.0 | 6.4% | Beverages | £16.38 | 1.0% |
ICAP | 8.84% | 9.0 | 2.0 | 15.3% | Financial Services | £3.38 | 6.0% |
William Hill | 5.94% | 9.8 | 2.5 | 12.0% | Travel & Leisure | £2.83 | 3.0% |
Man Group Plc. | 11.33% | 10.4 | 1.1 | -22.7% | General Financial | £0.76 | 8.0% |
Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc | 5.55% | 14.0 | 1.9 | 8.7% | Household Goods | £33.68 | 4.0% |
Sky | 4.8% | 13.7 | 1.9 | 16.6% | Media | £6.97 | 5.0% |
WPP Plc. | 3.42% | 11.5 | 3.0 | 14.4% | Media | £7.72 | 6.0% |
KAZ Minerals Plc | 2.9% | 6.2 | 9.6 | 50.3% | Mining | £7.22 | 8.0% |
Rio Tinto plc | 2.97% | 6.9 | 7.5 | 11.9% | Mining | £30.27 | 8.0% |
GSK Plc | 6.88% | 12.7 | 1.6 | 6.1% | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | £14.48 | 4.0% |
Astrazeneca plc | 9.56% | 6.5 | 2.57 | 9.5% | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | £28.45 | 4.0% |
WH Smith Plc | 4.64% | 9.0 | 2.3 | 9.8% | Retailers | £5.48 | 3.0% |
Next plc. | 4.35% | 11.1 | 2.7 | 9.6% | Retailers | £32.03 | 1.0% |
Sage Group plc | 5.52% | 14.5 | 2.4 | 9.2% | Software & Computer Services | £2.78 | 7.0% |
Compass Group Plc | 5.45% | 14.5 | 2.0 | 8.8% | Travel & Leisure | £6.68 | 3.0% |
Vodafone Group plc | 8.25% | 11.2 | 1.4 | 18.5% | Mobile Telecommunications | £1.79 | 7.0% |
Inmarsat | 8.99% | 7.9 | 2.0 | 7.1% | Telecomms | £4.91 | 3.0% |
British American Tobacco Plc | 7.38% | 15.1 | 1.6 | 19.2% | Tobacco | £32.47 | 1.0% |
Imperial Brands Plc | 4.18% | 11.0 | 2.1 | 10.5% | Tobacco | £24.60 | 4.0% |
Aerospace & Defence
BAE Systems plc, Chemring Group plc
BAE Systems
Here we choose BAE systems for it's superior yield and share buyback programme. It is currently yielding 8.43% on the 3 dividend optimizer. It has a forward P.E of around 7 and is forecast to increase it's dividend by around 5.5%. It has an excellent track record of increasing it's dividend. We would be underweight in this sector due to U.S. Defence cuts, but would still retain a holding rather than a zero weighting.
Chemring
Chemring has an amazing recent track record, growing rapidly by acquisition. It has a decent yield, a good forecast dividend growth target and has very high dividend cover. We prefer it the BAE in spite of the lower yield and so give it a slightly higher weighting in the portfolio.
Beverages
Diageo plc
Diageo
Diageo is a very defensive stock and is on a premium rating to reflect this. It meets our criteria and so is included in the portfolio with a relatively low weighting of 3%.
Financial Services
ICAP
ICAP
ICAP really is an excellent company. It is tarnished with the 'financials' brush as investors remember what happened to their bank shares. This is no bank. It is a money making machine and it pays a whopping dividend. Absolutely essential part of the portfolio. We attach a very high weighting of 8%.
General Financial
Man Group Plc.
Man Group
Although strictly speaking, MAN does not meet our criteria of having to have a forecast dividend increase for the current year, it has maintained it's dividend and changed it's year end. We believe it is worth holding as it has a lot of surplus cash and will benefit hugely from a return to stability in the markets as clients return and the redemptions stop. It's very high yield tempts us into a decent weighting of 4% of the portfolio.
Household Goods
Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc
Reckitt Benckiser
Another defensive stock with a long track record. A decent yield, cover and FDI lead us to weight it at 4%
Media
Sky, WPP Plc.
BskyB
Forced into a share buyback to support it's ailing share price in light of the News of the World scandal, BskyB nevertheless is a good investment. There has to be some worry over people cutting their subscriptions in the recession, but the company has shown great resiliance. With decent cover and good forecast dividend growth, we weight it 4%.
WPP
Strong results for the first 3 quarters of the year bode well for the full year outcome. Strong dividend cover and a high expected dividend increase make this advertising giant a 4% weighting in the portfolio.
Mining
KAZ Minerals Plc, Rio Tinto plc
Kazakhmys
Is a major producer of copper. The company now has net cash on the balance sheet and is using it's strong cash generation to return surplus cash to shareholders in the form of buybacks and increased dividends. With dividend cover over 9, the scoppe for increased dividends over time is huge.
Rio Tinto
This mining giant is buying back it's own shares, enjoys high dividend cover and has considerable scope to increase the dividend through increased profitability and strong cash flows.
We recommend a weighting of 4% each for Rio and Kazakhmys.
Mobile Telecommunications
Vodafone Group plc
Vodafone
Vodafone is an absolute must for any dividend portfolio for a number of reasons. It's huge cash generative abilities make it essential. Reasons to hold Vodafone include It's high yield of over 8%, it's stated dividend policy of increasing the dividend by at least 7%. There is also the wild card of what it will do with it's Verison dividends, if and when Verison choose to pay them. Last year Vodafone returned them directly to shareholders in the form of an 4p special dividend with the Interim.
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
GSK Plc, Astrazeneca plc
Glaxo Smithkline
Glaxo is a core holding for any portfolio. It is excellent value and pays a good dividend. The new business strategy promises much for shareholders.
Astra Zeneca
On a very low P/E, the prospects for Astra Zeneca are fully accounted for in the low share price,. It remains a highly cash generative business.
Retailers
WH Smith Plc, Next plc.
WH Smith
WH Smith is another company with an excellent track record and is not expensive.
Next
Next is good value on a P/E of under 12 and a dividend approaching 5%. Good value for this very well run business.
Software & Computer Services
Sage Group plc
Sage
With a 5.5% yield and a P/E of just over 14, Sage is very good value in this generally high growth sector.
Telecomms
Inmarsat
Inmarsat
Inmarsat is a growth company on a very low rating with excellent prospects, a very high yield and solid dividend cover. It is entering a year of relative consilidation and the dividend is only expected to increase by 7%, but with the share buyback and a 3 dividend optimised yield of almost 9%, it is great value.
Tobacco
British American Tobacco Plc, Imperial Brands Plc
British American Tobacco
A high P/E and a high yield and a very good increase in the dividend forecast. Highly defensive.
Imperial Group
A lower P/E than BAT and a lower yield. Highly defensive
Travel & Leisure
William Hill, Compass Group Plc
William Hill
William Hill is a reovery play on a P/E of about 10 with a yield approaching 7%.
Compass Group
Not cheap on a PE of over 14x, but the yield is nearing 6% and the company is a play on quality management and a very good track record of growth.